Weather Blog: We're looking at a possible warm and wet Masters 2019

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Friday, April 5, 2019

AUGUSTA, GA (WRDW/WAGT) -- We are inching closer to that special time in April.

The time of year when the Garden City welcomes thousands of people from around the world to enjoy the tradition known as the Masters. April is a month of transition for our weather pattern in the Southeast, which means wet weather usually comes into play.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (April 10-14) has the CSRA under a 40 to 50 percent chance of seeing above average precipitation during that time frame.

The CPC also has the CSRA under a 30 to 40 percent chance of seeing above average temperatures. The average high and low temperature for this stretch of April is 77 degrees and 47 degrees. The average daily rainfall for this time frame is 0.09”.

Outlooks this far in advance do not pinpoint the hour or even day when rain is possible, but instead looks for trends in models that show favorable and unfavorable upper level wind patterns that are conducive for rain or dry conditions, as well as warm or cold temperatures. CPC forecasters also analyze previous year’s patterns that are similar to the present pattern to help them make the outlook.

When looking at weather conditions from the last 10 years of the Masters, there are some interesting takeaways (see graphic above). Over the last ten years, Thursday is the warmest day on average (78.8°) and Sunday is usually the coolest (74.5°). The warmest temperature for a tournament day over the last ten years is 91° (4/9/15 & 4/9/11). The coolest high temperature for a tournament day over the last ten years is 60° (4/8/18). 2011 was the warmest year (avg. high – 86.25°) out of the last ten and 2016 was the coolest (avg. high - 69°).

On average, the wettest day is Friday (avg. rainfall – 0.10”) and the driest day is Sunday (avg. rainfall – 0.02”). The wettest tournament day out of the last ten was Friday, April 10, 2009 (0.62”). 2014 was the only tournament out of the last ten where there was no rain reported, not even a trace.

April is also prime time for severe weather in the Southeast. Patrons of the 2009 Masters lived through a night they will never forget. On Friday April 10th, 2009 a tornado traveled through Richmond County near the interchange of Bobby Jones Expressway and Gordon Highway. Multiple supercells traveled through the region blowing roofs off of homes, knocking down trees, and leaving many without power. It’s too soon to say if severe weather will be possible this year. No matter the forecast, you can trust the News 12 On Your Side Weather team to keep you safe.