(WRDW/WAGT) -- We are closely monitoring the potential for severe weather on Friday. The Storm Prediction Center has placed our region under a 15% probability of seeing severe storms on Friday. While it is still too far out to know the exact timing, it is possible to have an understanding on what ingredients will be in play.
When forecasting, meteorologists use different weather models to help understand what the future holds. When the models are in agreement with one another, meteorologists have higher confidence in the forecast. Most weather models are in agreement that we will have the potential for severe weather on Friday in the CSRA.
There will be a strong upper level trough that will swing through the region Friday bringing very fast winds aloft and favorable dynamics for thunderstorm development. At the surface, a cold front will progress eastward and lift warm, unstable air into the upper atmosphere where it will then interact with the trough. This combination of ingredients will allow for robust thunderstorm development, possibly even supercells.
The limiting factor for severe weather will be how much cloud cover we see and what time the storms arrive. If the storms enter the region during the afternoon then there would be a higher potential for severe storms. If the storms enter the region at night or early in the morning then the severe potential is lower. Cloud cover will also dictate how unstable the air is able to get ahead of the storms. If we stay cloudy most of the day before the storms then that will limit severe weather. If the sun is able to shine the first half of the day and destabilize the atmosphere then it could be bombs away for storms.
All modes of severe weather are on the table for the CSRA on Friday, but that could change as we get closer and have a better understanding of timing and atmospheric dynamics. Keep it here for updates throughout the week.