Voter model shows Georgia Senate race could be within one percentage point

ATLANTA, Ga. (Atlanta News First) - Mark Rountree with Landmark Communications is crunching numbers. Rountree is able to use voter modeling, which uses public records, to predict to what party a voter might align.

“The biggest question out there at this point is how many people are going to come out on Election Day,” said Rountree.

Rountree said his predictions suggest that Warnock leads Walker 55% to 45% with around 1.5 million people voting early. Rountree says this is no surprise.

“Warnock is doing better on early voting than on election day, this is generally true in Georgia. Democrats do better in early voting and republicans do better on election day,” said Rountree.

RELATED: Former President Obama campaigns with Senator Warnock in Atlanta ahead of runoff

He expects more than a million people to vote on Election Day and expects 60 percent or more of those votes for Republican candidate Herschel Walker

“Trump carried 61% of the vote on Election Day and Kemp just carried substantially higher than that a few weeks ago. There is a threshold the question is how many people are going to vote,” said Rountree.

RELATED: Raphael Warnock, Herschel Walker in runoff dead heat, new poll says.

If turnout remains high, Georgia might not have final results on Tuesday night.

“It’s a one-point race, which this really could potentially be, you’re talking about a recount, you’re potentially talking about a lawsuit to make sure that only legal voters can vote, and that could affect the speed at which a potential winner is called,” said Rountree.

RELATED: Friday is the last day for early voting in Georgia’s Senate runoff

He also says the weather could have an impact on turnout. Rain in the forecast could deter some voters.

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