2006 hurricane season predicted to be more active than average

By: Adam Clark
By: Adam Clark

2005's hurricane season broke several records.

It was the most active hurricane season in recorded history with over 2280 people killed and over $100 billion damage.

That was then...now, meteorologist Adam Clark looks at what to expect this season.

During an average tropical season, we see 11 named storms. This includes six hurricanes, two of them category 3 or higher. This year the tropical prediction center is forecasting more than our normal share.

"NOAA is predicting an above normal hurricane season, with 13 to 16 named storms which 8 to 10 are to become hurricanes, and 4 to 6 of those are to become major or Cat 3 strength or higher," says Deputy Secretary of Commerce Dr. David Sampson.

Here are the reasons behind the forecast: There are warmer sea surface temperatures; there is a favorable wind pattern over Africa, where hurricanes form; and low shear is forecasted, which allows hurricanes to strengthen.

There is some good news.

"The weak La Nina condition in equatorial pacific has dissipated," Dr. Sampson says. "It will not be an issue this hurricane season."

La Nina means more hurricanes, so its absence won't be missed.

But we are in an active hurricane pattern, which can last from 25 to 40 years. We're only 11 years into this pattern.

The tropical prediction center says two to four storms could hit land this year.


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